OTTAWA - The parliamentary sitting that begins today is supposed to be the one where Stephen Harper begins harvesting what he has carefully cultivated in Quebec since the winter election.

When MPs return to the House of Commons today, they should expect to see a flurry of legislation and proposals aimed at putting the final building blocks in place to elect a majority government. That includes, according to House Leader Rob Nicholson, the passage of the accountability legislation and the Senate term-limit bill, as well as the announcement of an expenditure restraint package. Voters can also expect a new set of priorities that focus on such issues as value for money, accountability and national security.

But the cornerstone of the agenda will be a substantial environmental package augmented by proposals to fix the so-called fiscal imbalance -- both issues that have deep resonance in Quebec, the province on which the Conservatives' majority hinges.

Unfortunately, for the Tories, those issues will now have to share parliamentary debate time with two unforeseen controversies also with deep reverberations in Quebec: the Afghanistan mission and last week's shootings at Dawson College in Montreal.

"He's got himself into a situation with public safety and gun control, and with Afghanistan where it's going to be harder now to appeal to the constituency in Quebec," said Steve Patten, a University of Alberta political scientist.

For the first few months of his term in office, Mr. Harper moved adroitly in building the constituencies he needs to increase his vote. He has, for example, courted Canada's immigrant communities with initiatives such as apologizing for the Chinese head tax, and has dug out working-class support with such measures as reducing the GST and providing monthly $100 cheques for parents of preschool children.

But one of his most important acts during the spring was to signal to Quebeckers that he had their interests at heart -- first by courting Premier Jean Charest and, second, by promising Quebeckers that he would fix the fiscal imbalance. He has also pledged to introduce substantial environmental legislation to attract Quebeckers who don't like the fact that the government has all but abrogated Canada's signature on the Kyoto accord.

Then came the problems in Afghanistan and, most recently, the Montreal shootings. Both issues are now likely to dominate the headlines and Question Period in the coming session, taking away face time for other matters.

On Afghanistan and the gun registry, Mr. Harper's problem stems from the fact that he has made it clear where he stands and will have difficulty pulling back.

On gun control, the Tories have already signalled to supporters in the West that they want to scrap the registry, an unpopular move in Quebec, but one that many core Conservatives don't want to negotiate. They will be watching Mr. Harper closely to ensure he doesn't renege.

Mr. Harper might also want to take heed of concerns expressed last week by Charles McVety, president of the Canada Family Action Coalition, who said the government risks alienating its core if it calls a quick vote on the issue of same-sex marriage just to get rid of it.

"Is Stephen Harper abandoning marriage? Well, we'll find out. If it's a snap vote, then I would interpret that as Stephen Harper abandoning marriage," said Mr. McVety, who is also senior director of Defend Marriage.

Mr. McVety noted that large numbers of Conservative supporters actively campaigned to get out the vote in the last election for Tory MPs who oppose gay marriage, which he said contributed to a higher voter turnout and a Conservative victory.

"If they abandon those voters, they won't come out. And if there is not a high voter turnout, there will be no majority [Conservative] government," he said.

In sum, the Prime Minister's reputation as a man with strong commitments may well have left him with little room to manoeuvre in the early part of this fall. He can't move backward on Afghanistan nor on the gun registry, but failing to do so could well harm the key to the whole session -- that of turning 10 Quebec seats into 20 or 30, or even more.

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