"Death Watch Fall '06" is asking viewers to peer inside their Medium-inspired crystal balls and divine which of the fall's 24 new shows will be the first to earn its rightful place alongside Manimal, Love That Bob and Pink Lady & Jeff in the pantheon of early TV dismissals.

Happy Hour, a slap-happy sitcom about a newly single dude who learns to enjoy life with his new, party-hearty roommate, is the early frontrunner at 3-to-1 odds. A rumour Monday that it had already been cancelled was denied by the Fox network.

Last week, Happy Hour posted the lowest numbers of any new series -- this, after an episode that aired Sept. 14 was seen by just five million viewers in the U.S. More importantly, it tumbled 20 places in that week's Nielsen ratings, to 61st from 41st. In Canada, it airs Saturday afternoons on CTV, where it is not officially counted in the weekly prime-time ratings.

The Death Watch Fall '06 game will run for nine weeks in all, or about three weeks longer than Pink Lady & Jeff lasted in 1980. Viewers are asked to predict which TV show will be cancelled in any given week. The odds are changed each week to reflect the turning tide in viewers' tastes.

Earlier this week, Men in Trees was the odds-on favourite to join Happy Hour as the answer to a future Jeopardy! trivia question. The Anne-Heche-looking-for-a-man-in-Alaska dramatic comedy has been likened to a cross between Sex and the City and Northern Exposure, but without the watercooler buzz or pizzazz of either.

Men in Trees was listed at 4-1, but those odds could lengthen now that Trees' opening-night numbers have firmed in its second week, however. Men in Trees won its time period last Friday in the key demographic of young women.

Cancellation often has as much to do with how many viewers bail out from one week to the next as with how few watched the show in the first place. That is why Happy Hour may be in trouble, whereas Men in Trees may be safer than appears at first sight.

Ugly Betty is next at 10:1, but that may be misleading: Betty hasn't even premiered yet. It starts tomorrow. Betty, about a style-challenged fashion writer who lands a job at a snooty, high-end fashion firm, has already been heralded by many reviewers as the "It" show of the fall season.

Also high on the Death Watch list is the yet-to-debut ABC comedy Knights of Prosperity, at 14-to-1, and CBS's already-debuted Jericho, the post-apocalyptic ensemble drama that Jericho's producers call "an odd mixture of 24 and Little House on the Prairie."

Jericho is listed at 32-to-1, despite posting strong numbers in its opening-night debut. Vanished and Standoff are next on the list, at 34-to-1 and 47-to-1. Brothers & Sisters is a long shot for cancellation at 52-to-1.

Based on early evidence, NBC's Kidnapped and ABC's Six Degrees may be in more realistic danger, however. Kidnapped failed to gain traction opposite CSI: New York in its debut. And Six Degrees lost half its lead-in audience from Grey's Anatomy.

BrilliantButCancelled.com is an offshoot of the U.S. Bravo program Brilliant But Cancelled. The program re-airs short-lived series, like Paul Haggis' EZ Streets, that wowed critics and developed a cult following, but didn't have the mainstream appeal to last beyond a dozen episodes or so.

"We're in the same position as a plumber laying a pipe," David Sarnoff, founder of NBC, once said famously. "We're not responsible for what goes through the pipe."

It's the viewers, though, who ultimately decide whether what goes through the pipe keeps going through the pipe. Don't worry, in other words. Be Happy.

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